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What prices await us in 2023? These products will almost certainly become cheaper

What prices await us in 2023?  These products will almost certainly become cheaper

What prices await us in 2023? These products will almost certainly become cheaper

The AgroNawigator of PKO BP published today includes, among others: forecasts for food prices in 2023. They show that this year there is a chance of a decrease in the prices of some products.

“Taking into account the supply and demand conditions on the grain market, we estimate that further price decreases are a more likely scenario than their increases. The average purchase price of wheat in 2023 may change in the range from -15% y/y to +1% y/y The market will continue to adapt to the war conditions, and the weakening demand related to the economic slowdown will be a factor influencing price drops.

– reported in AgroNawigator.

Economists stipulated that lower supply of cereals will keep their prices at an elevated level. They added that they will also depend on geopolitical conditions, i.a. situation in Ukraine.

The analysis of PKO BP shows that in 2023 they are also likely further price reductions on the rapeseed market – mainly under the influence of declining demand resulting from the economic slowdown. A more comfortable seed balance in the 2022/23 season is a significant support for the decline scenario, but rapeseed stocks will still be at a relatively low level.

It was indicated that this year milk may become more expensive.

“We forecast that the average price of milk in 2023 will change in the range from -1% y/y to +10% y/y, although price increases will largely concern the first half of 2023, and more likely in the second half of 2023. there are already price drops. The stabilization of production at the main exporters in the world in 2023 speaks in favor of maintaining a relatively high level of quotations on the milk market”

– assessed the analysts.

But beef should be cheaper. According to AgroNawigator, the average purchase price of cattle in 2023 will be lower by at least 8 percent. y/y According to the authors of the study, the decrease will be a consequence of a reduction in supply pressure (mainly in the world, but also in the EU, among others, as a result of the improvement in the income situation of producers) and a decrease in demand related to the expected economic slowdown.

“We expect that the average purchase price of poultry in 2023 will be slightly higher than in 2022 (change in the range from -4% to +6% y/y). H1 In 2023, prices will decline y/y, but the decline in production will keep them at an elevated level. A high level of inflation and a slowing economy will be the factors contributing to a decline in consumption. Poultry could gain against more expensive pork and beef during the slowdown

– indicated PKO BP analysts.

In their opinion, pork may become more expensive – by approx. 2-11 percent. compared to 2022, but at the same time the analysis indicates that in the second half of the year prices may fall by 4-15%. This will result from a drop in feed prices, which will ease the cost pressure in livestock production, but strong increases in energy prices and high market uncertainty will stop possible large changes in supply at least until the end of Q1 2023. high inflation and the expected economic slowdown will have a negative impact on pork consumption, economists predict.

The increase in the share of fruit intended for processing and the increased costs of fruit storage, despite reduced export sales, may be reflected in lower apple stocks (y/y) in the following months of 2023. We maintain that in such conditions, an increase in apple prices above the seasonal pattern is possible, which may result in an increase in inflation in the fruit category in Q2 2023.

– stated in the analysis of PKO BP.

The authors of AgroNawigator indicated that in the first half of 2023 they are possible further price increases on the vegetable market. High demand on third markets and an increase in storage costs may contribute to a reduction in supply in the coming months. Lower production of vegetables under cover, due to increased heating costs, will support price increases, although imported vegetables will still be a factor inhibiting growth, the bank’s analysts believe.

Source: niezalezna.pl, PAP

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