- In July, unemployment remained at a record level of 4.9%, and the number of unemployed decreased by almost 8,000.
- Only half of the decline in unemployment is due to the improvement in the labor market
- The analysis of GUS data should take into account the fact that 420,000 have already started work in Poland. refugees on the basis of simplified rules
- It is worrying that the number of new job offers is falling
- Year on year employment increased mainly in the countryside – results from the BAEL survey. According to this study, which excludes people who are not looking for employment at all, unemployment is only 2.6%.
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The unemployment rate in July was 4.9%. – the Central Statistical Office announced on Wednesday, confirming preliminary calculations by the Ministry of Marlena Maląg from August 5. This is the same level as in June, rounded to one decimal place.
But however, the number of unemployed has decreased. At the end of July, 810.2 thousand of them were registered in labor offices, i.e. by 7.8 thousand. less than a month earlier, and at the same time by as much as 164.7 thousand. less than a year earlier. This is even better data than the labor ministry reported at the beginning of August, estimating then that 811,000 are unemployed. On the basis of these data, however, July theoretically should not be considered successful.
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It’s a month of seasonal work, so usually unemployment fell much more than by 8,000. Except for the first year of the pandemic, when it even increased by 3,000. and beyond 2018, when it decreased by only 6.1 thous. usually in July more than 10 thousand decreased. unemployed.
Moreover, the decline in unemployment is not only the result of taking up a job, but also retirement and disability pensions. At 111.3 thousand people deregistered from the unemployment register, 50.6 thous. In other words, Only half of the decline in unemployment is due to the improvement in the labor market.
It must be honestly said that our labor market is increasingly influenced by demographics. Research on the Economic Activity of the Population shows that the number of people aged 15-89 is decreasing, and thus it is falling, as if automatically the denominator in the formulas for the main labor market statistics. The denominator drops faster than the numerator increases
– comments Mariusz Zielonka, economic expert of the Lewiatan Confederation.
However, it should not be forgotten that refugees have entered the labor market. In this context, however, the data on the drop in unemployment look very good.
420 thousand refugees are already working
– At present, over 420 thousand. Ukrainian citizens took up employment. They are mainly women, the Minister of Family and Social Policy, Marlena Maląg, announced on Wednesday in radio Jedynka. It is about those people who came to Poland after February 24. They were granted a temporary residence permit for up to three years, were given a PESEL number and could start work on the basis of simplified regulations on the employment of refugees.
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An employer who employs a refugee from Ukraine must notify the competent employment office via praca.gov.pl within 14 days. Ukrainian citizens can also use the services of the labor market in the form of, inter alia, job placement, career counseling and training – on the same terms as Polish citizens.
Less and less job offers
The employment of refugees may have been one of the reasons decrease in the number of job offers in offices. At the end of the month, there were only 74.8 thousand. Despite the season for work in the field, this is the worst data since March 2021, and July was no worse than 2013.
Another thing is that relatively few employers also submitted new offers. In July, 79.9 thousand people appeared. job offers in the private sector, and 89.7 thousand. in total – the Central Statistical Office (GUS) reported. This is 6,000 less. compared with June and 28 thousand. less than in July last year
It may also be alarming that there were 103.5 thousand newly registered unemployed, or 10.6 percent. more than in June and by 6.5 percent. more than in July last year
Among the unemployed, 55.2 percent. it’s women. There is no entitlement to unemployment benefit for 698 thousand. unemployed, or 86 percent. of all, and 45 percent of them are unemployed for more than a year. 13 percent are people who have not worked yet.
Simultaneously with the unemployment data for July, the data on economic activity of Poles for the second quarter according to the BAEL survey appeared. And here the information is very good. PKO Research writes about the employment rate record.
Employed in the second quarter of this year. there were 16770 thousand, i.e. by 173 thousand. more than a year ago in the same period, and by 56 thousand. more than in the first quarter of this year. The employment of women increased by 113,000 year on year, and that of men by 60,000, but men constituted the majority, i.e. 54.5%. working. Interestingly, year-on-year increase in employment took place mainly in the countryside – by 169 thousand. more yy.
Employment of people with higher education dropped by 60 thousand. yoy, and increased with post-secondary and vocational secondary by 158 thousand.
Employment in trade decreased the most by 79 thousand. yoy to 2.25 million, and it grew in agriculture in individual farms by 71 thousand. up to 1.33 million Most people are employed in manufacturing (3.25 million) and in trade (2.25 million). Agriculture moved to third place (1.43 million).
According to BAEL, unemployment, i.e. unemployment that does not take into account people who are not looking for a job, but only register with the office in order to obtain, for example, health insurance, fell to just 454 thousand. people in the second quarter of this year, i.e. 2.6 percent professionally active population.
Prepared by: Jacek Frączyk, journalist at Business Insider Polska