Three scenarios for a crisis. Economists refer to meteorologists

While the crisis related to the onset of the pandemic in 2020 has fallen like a bolt from the blue, the one that is coming now has been expected for many months. It was known that energy prices would be gigantic, it was known that inflation was unlikely to let go – and that the Kremlin would play with raw materials in the war with the West.

It was not – and still unclear – what the weather awaits us in the fall and winter season. And this is crucial when it comes to the coming crisis.

Scenario 1. Cold winter and a serious crisis

– If there are severe frosts, greater downtime in factories is possible – says Business Insider Rafał Benecki, chief economist of ING Bank Śląski.

Which industries are most vulnerable to this? The expert replies that, for example, “construction facilities”, that is, the production of glass, metal elements, but also the chemical industry. In a word, such companies where electricity is up to 20 percent. costs (the average for the entire economy is approx. 2.5%).

However, the entire economy would be in trouble in this case. The demand for raw materials will be gigantic, and therefore energy will be very expensive. Governments will do everything to keep the residents warm, but the energy for business may already run out.

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published.