The war in Ukraine. Four scenarios of a nuclear crisis that may be triggered by Russia – according to an analyst “Financial Times”
Western politicians believe that the risk of Russia using nuclear weapons is growing. It can be assumed that there are four scenarios of a nuclear crisis that the Kremlin may trigger, writes Gideon Rachman, the chief foreign affairs commentator for the Financial Times daily, judging that the “optimistic” one is the most likely. On that day, British Foreign Minister James Cleverly warned that Russia would suffer “serious consequences” if Vladimir Putin decides to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
“United States and their allies are using a mixture of diplomacy and deterrence to prevent Russia from using nuclear weapons, but at the same time reflecting on the global ramifications of using such weapons. The pressure is enormous, “writes Gideon Rachman.” In simple terms, there are four crisis scenarios to consider: nuclear normalization, nuclear blackmail, avoiding confrontation and armageddon, “he says.
“Nuclear normalization“Rachman calls a situation where the West would not react to Russia’s use of nuclear weapons for fear of direct involvement of its forces in the conflict, which could lead to a full-scale nuclear war.” No one should be convinced that we are able to control the risk ( such) escalation “- warned a representative of the American administration quoted by” FT “.
However, if the West did not respond to Russia’s use of the atomic bomb, the taboo in force since 1945 would be broken. This would lead to “nuclear normalization”, which is a situation where many countries, for example North Korea and China, one could be tempted to use such weapons. Other countries would quickly seek to acquire their own nuclear arsenal to defend themselves. The world would be in turmoil, leading to collapse of markets and possibly panic that would induce people to move out of big cities, Rachman predicts.
Fears related to this scenario have prompted opinions that negotiations with Russia should nevertheless be started. This, however, would lead to a situation in which the Kremlin realized that it could effectively cultivate “nuclear blackmail“- continues the author.” What would stop Moscow from further nuclear threats, perhaps against Eastern Europe? “- he adds.
The third scenario is “armageddon“that is, the full-scale nuclear war that the US President publicly warned against Joe Biden. According to Rachman, the three worst scenarios are still less likely than the fourth, optimistic, ie avoiding nuclear war.
The author recalls that since 1945 the leaders have managed to step back “from the abyss” many times and remain aware that “a false move could take millions of lives or even destroy the planet.” “It should still work. Perhaps,” Rachman concludes.
British Foreign Minister warns Russia
That day British Foreign Minister James Cleverly said in the House of Commons that “no other country talks about the use of nuclear weapons” and “no country threatens Russia or President Putin.” It should be clear that, for the UK and our allies, any use of nuclear weapons would fundamentally change the nature of this conflict. This would have serious consequences for Russia, he said.
He added that the Kremlin’s “increasingly desperate statements” were intended to distract attention from the deteriorating effects of its war efforts. This was a reference to last week’s allegations by the Russian Ministry of Defense, which, without giving any evidence, stated that British Navy personnel had blew up the Nord Stream pipelines in September, and other claims that British specialists launched an attack by Ukrainian drones on ships in the Black Sea Fleet on Saturday. Sevastopol in the Russian-occupied Crimea.
Main photo source: Andrey Rudakov / Bloomberg via Getty Images
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