As PIE pointed out, thanks high proportion of consumer goods durable use (including household appliances, audio / video devices, electronics, furniture) Polish exports to Germany grew, and Poland increased its share in German imports to 5.7 percent. in 2021 “Now it may be the opposite, as we are already seeing a clear decline foreign demand for these goods “ – they stated Institute experts. In their opinion, what was Poland’s advantage during the Covid-19 pandemic may now work to the detriment of Polish-German economic cooperation.
PIE analysts they noted that the data from the German economy indicated progressive slowdown economic activity in Germany. The index reflecting the sentiment among entrepreneurs across the Oder was 84.3 points in September. against 88.6 points a month earlier – pointed out PIE, citing German Ifo Institutewhich released the data on September 26. “This is the lowest level since May 2020.” – stated. Added that as well index of export expectations it decreased by 6 points in September. against a drop by 2.8 points. in August. “The worst prospects are for the chemical, furniture and metal industries” – indicated. PIE experts noted that in the fourth quarter of this year. German exports of the automotive industry are expected to increase.
“Vital” for the V4
In the opinion of analysts recession forecast in Germany may have a slightly different impact on the economies of the Visegrad Group (V4) countries. Usually – as they noted – crises hit the automotive industry hard, which is crucial for the V4 economies. “So far, there is no weakening in the German automotive industry. On the contrary, in August 2022, 207,000 passenger cars were produced in Germany, i.e. 68 percent more than a year earlier” – indicated in the Thursday issue of “Tygodnik Gospodarczy PIE”.
Added that has improved too availability of materials and components for production in automotive industry. “Such problems were reported in August by 67.2% of companies, compared to 87.6% in July” – stated. This meant a drop by 20 points. percent compared to July. About 30 percent in August this year. the added value generated in the Chinese automotive industry has increased. “This could be a sign of a global overcoming of problems with the availability of automotive components and the fulfillment of backlogs.” – indicated.
It was recalled that demand of German households, entrepreneurs and institutions government for final products from the V4 countries “generated a significant percentage GDP these countries “. According to the latest available data cited by PIE in the OECD Trade in Value Added database, in 2018 “Germany’s final demand accounted for 8.9% of the Czech Republic, 7.9% of Hungary, 7.1% of Poland and 6.3% of . Slovak GDP. “
“Compared to other V4 countries, Poland was distinguished by the most diversified structure of exports of goods and services to Germany” – marked. It was noted that the greatest value added was created in Poland, thanks to the German final demand in the wholesale and retail trade (13.4%) and the demand for automotive (12%) and food (9.7%) products, as well as other products (including furniture) and services repairs of machinery and equipment (7.3%). In the remaining V4s, the share of German demand for automotive products generated over 20%. the added value consumed beyond the Oder.
PIE analysts stressed that Germany They were also of great importance in the export of value added generated in the V4 countries. “In 2018, German exports contained Polish added value equal to 2.7% of Poland’s GDP” – it was stated. In other V4 countries, this share ranged from 2.9%. in Slovakia and 3 percent. in Hungary to 3.6 percent. in the Czech republic. In all countries, the greatest value added was exported by Germany in the products of the automotive industry, which accounted for 26 percent. Polish value added, but the least among the V4 countries (around 35%).