The ISW took a closer look at Putin’s plans. Here’s what he’s up to. “Breaking the West …”
Putin most likely it will continue conventional operations on Ukraine in order to maintain the currently occupied territories, occupy new ones and create conditions for the collapse of Western support for Ukraine, which, as it expects, will occur in the spring – he estimates HEI.
ISW about Putin’s plans
“Putin has most likely not given up on achieving maximum goals on Ukraine with the use of conventional military means, which he uses in parallel with actions intended to break the fighting spirit of the Ukrainians, and willingness of the West to help Kiev“- states the American think tank in the latest report.
According to ISW, it is it is unlikely that Russia will use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraineunless there is a sudden defeat of the Russian forces there, which would allow the uncontrolled advance of Ukrainian troops. “Such a situation is possible, but unlikely” – underlined that Putin does not want a conflict with NATO.
“It is very likely that Putin will continue suggest the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons and attacks on NATO as part of efforts to break the West’s willingness to help Ukraine, “assesses the TI.
Putin wants to break the West
The center’s analysts point out that Putin is creating the conditions for continuing to send ill-prepared troops directly to take part in the fighting, and not to suspend operations in order to restore effective military forces. The second element of his “victory theory” is using the harsh winter to break the West.
The plans to continue the war are indicated by the mobilization activities in Russia, which Putin decided at the price of high internal risks. ISW also points out that forces gained through mobilization and during the autumn conscription (which is just beginning), they will most likely create two waves of Russian troops to fight in Ukraine – the first will hit the front in the coming weeks, and the next – in spring 2023.
Due to the climatic conditions in Ukraine, Russia wants to send as much force as possible in the near future to strengthen its defensive positions during the fall and before winter, when the frozen ground and rivers will allow the fighting to intensify. Fall recruits, after about six months of training, can be used in possible offensive operations after the end of the spring thaw next year.
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