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The five most interesting developments in the economy right now

The proposal to introduce a new tax on the so-called windfall profits in large companies provoked quite a panic on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The shares of the largest company on the WSE, i.e. PKN Orlen, fell by over 6 percent, PGE by nearly 7 percent, PGNiG by 4.9 percent, and JSW by 9.7 percent. The WIG 20 index only dropped by 1.7%, but it would have been much worse if it had not been for 13% more expensive for completely different reasons. CD Projekt. Despite this, the WIG 20 was at the lowest level since March 2020, i.e. the moment of the collapse of quotations during the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic.

The nervousness was magnified by the complete information chaos around the idea. First, it was presented by Deputy Prime Minister Jacek Sasin, saying that the tax will apply to companies whose profit will grow by more than 20 percent this year. compared to 2021. Then, however, Artur Soboń, Deputy Minister of Finance he said that in fact, nothing is known yet, and the Ministry of State Assets of Jacek Sasin, the Ministry of Climate and the Energy Regulatory Office are working on different variants simultaneously. And you have to remember that energy companies have to invest – in other words, we should not take too much money from them.

Then “Rzeczpospolita” she wrote that the new tax is to apply not only to energy companies and not only banks, but also just all companieswhich employ at least 250 people and have annual revenues exceeding the equivalent of 50 million euro. However, not the increase in profit will be taxed, but the increase in gross margin in 2022 compared to the average for 2018, 2019 and 2021.

In turn, “Dziennik Gazeta Prawna” wrote that the tax will be reduced by investment expenditure, but only some, and that it will be possible to defer payment of the tax in the case of energy and gas companies.

The end result for now is that nothing it is not known for sureexcept that the government creates parallel projects that compete with each other, it is not known what provisions will be final in the official project, but we know that the market value of many companies on the Warsaw Stock Exchange has already suffered.

See also: Strong drops in oil prices. The cheapest raw material in months

2. More and more forecasts of further inflation growth

On Friday, we will get to know the preliminary data of the CSO on the inflation level in September, and by then we will probably learn more and more forecasts on this subject. The ones that have already been published are unfortunately not optimistic and assume a further increase in inflation. For example, economists from Citi Handlowy believe that inflation will rise from 16.1 percent. in August to 16.6 percent. which is quite clearly.

Our estimates indicate that the pace of inflation growth will be mainly driven by energy prices (heat: 2% month on month, fuel 10% m / m). We also expect a high increase in food prices (1.6% m / m), the contribution of which to inflation will – in our opinion – grow until the end of the year (…) In the face of the second-round effects, and a wide spread of rising energy prices over the rest of the consumption basket, we also expect core inflation to rise to 10.1%. Every year

– wrote in their weekly report. According to analysts, a full freeze of electricity and gas prices could lower inflation by 2.5 percentage points.

Similar forecasts placing inflation in the vicinity of 16.5-16.6 percent. several other banks also published

Finance minister Magdalena Rzeczkowska a few days ago said that in her opinion inflation may rise to 16.4 percent.

3. Porsche goes public on Thursday

Porsche shares are to appear on the German stock exchange as early as next Thursday, i.e. the day after tomorrow. Subscriptions for shares in the public offering are to end tomorrow, and according to Bloomberg reports, the final selling price of these shares will be equal to the maximum from the previously given range, as the interest in them is huge.

The indicated range is EUR 76.5-82.5 apiece. Orders placed below 82.5 euros are likely to be forfeited. At the maximum price, the offer is worth 9.1 billion euros, which is the fourth largest in history in Europe. Previously, only the Italian energy concern Enel ($ 16.6 billion in 1999), Deutsche Telekom ($ 12.5 billion in 1996) and Rosneft ($ 10.7 billion in 2006) obtained more money from investors. .). The largest public offering of shares in the world was the one in 2010 for $ 19.2 billion. carried out by the Agricultural Bank of China.

Coming back to Porsche – according to the public offering price, the entire company will be valued at EUR 75 billion – quite a lot compared to Volkswagen’s market valuation of EUR 96 billion. Volkswagen currently owns Porsche, so the comparison shows that all other businesses of this concern are worth around 20 billion euros – almost a quarter of what Porsche itself. So it is possible that after the stock market debut, either the Porsche value will drop or the Volkswagen value will increase.

See also: OECD cuts global growth forecasts. The braking of economies will be stronger

4. Retail bond rates go up

Inflation continues to rise, thankfully it goes up too interest rates on retail bonds, including those intended to protect against inflation. Since October, the interest rate on annual bonds has risen to 6.75%, and for two-year bonds to 6.85%. annually – in their case, the interest rate depends on the level of the NBP interest rate, which has recently increased slightly. Three-year bonds will now give 6.85 percent. annually (previously 6.5 percent).

As for inflation-indexed securities, i.e. four-year and ten-year securities, the former will give 7% in the first year of saving, not 6.5%. as before, and the latter 7.25 percent. instead of the previous 6.75 percent. In both cases, the interest rate depends on the inflation rate and increased by a margin (1 percentage point for four-year ones and 1.25 percentage points for ten-year ones) only from the second year of saving.

Additionally, from October 1, retail bonds will be available for purchase not only from PKO BP, but also through Pekao SA.

See also: Housing loan overpayments are holding back. Poles feel increasingly high inflation and interest rates

5. The government has adopted a bill to freeze electricity prices next year

Row adopted the bill introducing a limit on the price of electricity for households with consumption of up to 2,000 kWh per year. It was announced earlier, now it is officially approved and may be put to work in the Sejm. Compared to the previously known version, which was already widely discussed, there has been one significant change – the consumption limit for farms and families with the Big Family Card will amount to PLN 3,000. kWh, not 2.6 thous. kWh as announced earlier. However, the limit for people with disabilities remains at the level of 2,600 kWh. In addition, for households that use electricity for heating – including heat pumps – a special electric allowance will be introduced in the amount of up to 1.5 thousand. zloty.

Households, only after exceeding the appropriate limit – 2 thousand, 2.6 thousand. or 3,000 kWh, for each subsequent kilowatt-hour consumed, they will be billed at the prices applicable in the 2023 tariff or, in the case of free-market offers, at the prices included in the contract with the seller.

This means that each household – including the one that consumes, for example, 2.7 kWh per year – will benefit from freezing prices to the limit of PLN 2,000. kWh. Only the surplus over this limit will be charged according to the tariffs of 2023. According to the government, the solutions provided for in the act will cost PLN 23 billion.

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