Roman Switan: Russia is preparing for an offensive, but it will not be a massive attack
Russia is preparing for an offensive against Ukraine, but it will not be a massive attack, as at the beginning of the armed invasion, Ukrainian military expert Colonel Roman Svitan assessed in an interview with independent Russian media. In his opinion, we should expect “a cyclical sending of further masses of soldiers to the current front line.”
According to Switan, the Russians took offensive action after the Orthodox Christmas, i.e. after January 7. “We saw movement along the entire front line at that time Donbass, on a section of over 100 km between Sołedar and Wuhłedar. Now they are also starting to press from Valuyki in the Belgorod region to our northern flank, to Kupiansk and Swatowe, the expert explained in an interview with the Russian independent TV Nastoyashcheye Vremya.
“There will be no major offensive operations because the Russians do not have the (sufficient) forces and resources for that,” Svitan said. As he stated, the Russian forces will not (easily) succeed in breaking the Ukrainian defense lines, so “they will simply press against them with a mass of troops.” “In February, they will deploy the last 100,000 soldiers from the reservists mobilized in September and October last year,” added the colonel.
Predictions in the Kremlin
According to Svitan, Russian military intelligence and the authorities in the Kremlin are trying to predict when on Ukraine certain types of Western weapons will be delivered and they “adjust” military action plans to these dates, but these efforts do not bring success to the Kremlin.
– The enemy is trying to take advantage of the moment when the Ukrainian soldiers are just undergoing training or the equipment has not yet arrived at the front. All these calculations, however, turn out to be worth little because Russia – at least for now – it does not have sufficient resources of armored vehicles itself. This will only change in the summer, because by then the enemy will be able to produce more such machines and better equip their troops – said the expert.
In the opinion of the military, one should expect – sooner or later – a positive decision by Western partners regarding the transfer of F-16 multi-role aircraft and long-range missiles, such as ATACMS, to Ukraine. – The decision (on this matter) will be made, because the delivery of heavy equipment (tanks) without air cover is as sensible as drowning it in the Atlantic. If these (vehicles) do not have support, they will be destroyed practically in the first battle – emphasized the expert.
In December last year, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, General Valery Zaluzhny, expressed the assumption that the enemy “somewhere beyond the Urals” is preparing new troops of 200,000 soldiers to attack Ukraine again.
According to Załużny, such an offensive will most likely take place in late winter or early spring. As the commander predicted, a new stage of the war may begin in the Donbas, but an attack towards Kiev, an attack from the Belarusand even storming the southern section of the front.
Main photo source: SERGEY PIVOVAROV / Reuters / Forum
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