Retail sales are growing despite the pessimism of consumers. Ukrainians save the statistics

The latest GUS data indicated over 21 percent increase in retail sales in Poland per year. This suggests that Poles continue to consume more and more. It is worth noting, however, that after disregarding the price increase itself, in the so-called fixed prices, sales grew “only” by 4.2 percent.

These statistics fared better than economists’ forecasts. PKO BP experts point out that mainly the influx of refugees from Ukraine ensures an increase in trade turnover in Polandand the average domestic consumer is probably limiting spending due to declining real purchasing power of income.

They calculate that only the real sale of basic necessities is growing, such as food (7.4%), pharmaceuticals and cosmetics (13.7%) and clothing (8.4%). On the other hand, the decline in the sale of fuels (by 14.2%), furniture, radio and household appliances (by 2.8%) and books and the press (by 7.6%) deepened.

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PKO BP economists emphasize that retail sales are growing, despite the pessimism of consumers. Thus, they point to another Wednesday’s CSO publication on the consumer climate. The current index “remained near historical lows” and expectations for the future deteriorated.

The assessments of the future unemployment level and the future financial condition of the household deteriorated particularly strongly (decreases by 7.8 and 2 points, respectively), which is in line with media reports on employment restructuring in some enterprises, “PKO BP economists point out.

They add that the survey saw an increase in the percentage of households that plan to cut spending – “there are already slightly more of them than immediately after the pandemic hit“.

ING Bank Śląski economists estimate that in the following months, price increases may start to leave a greater mark on purchasing decisions and encourage households to be cautious in spendingespecially in terms of risk increased apartment maintenance costs in the fall and winter (heating, electricity).

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