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Putin has several doubles. Details are revealed by the head of Ukrainian intelligence

Putin has several doubles. Details are revealed by the head of Ukrainian intelligence

Since the invasion of Ukraine, the pressure on Vladimir Putin has been growing, and possible scenarios of his removal from power are being considered more and more often, writes the ZDF Heute portal. The Russian leader is not doing well in Ukraine and Russia, where there are visible problems with partial mobilization, a mass exodus of young men and increasingly tougher sanctions from the West.

“In the case of the Kremlin ruler, peace or even a truce (in Ukraine – PAP) is unthinkable. Many observers wonder whether Putin’s time is running out and whether regime change is possible, writes ZDF.

The first scenario that could lead to a change in power is a rebellion by Russian citizens. “Almost all autocratic rulers are afraid of (…) the street. The wave of solidarity and hope that can be sparked by mass demonstrations is now visible in Iran, ”notes the portal.

In Russia, however, several of the smaller protests in recent months have not turned into a wider movement. This may be due to the fact that assemblies are immediately brutally suppressed by Russian security forces, and arrested demonstrators are often directed to the Ukrainian front. Moreover, many dissidents have already left the country.

“Therefore, it now seems unlikely that it is the citizens of Russia that could become a threat to Putin,” emphasizes ZDF.

The second possibility for Russia to change would be Putin’s natural death. The Russian leader is 70 years old and looks healthy, although speculation about his health keeps recurring on social media, mainly on Telegram. “At present, however, there are no indications that he is seriously ill,” says ZDF.

The third scenario of a change of power is the coup in the Kremlin. “As early as 1991, the communists made an attempted coup against Gorbachev. (…) So it cannot be ruled out that the security apparatus might turn against the weakened Putin, ”noted ZDF.

However, Russia’s expert Jannis Kluge of the Science and Politics Foundation considers it unlikely. “The entire regime is structured in such a way that the fate of all prominent politicians and people in office depends on the fate of Putin. When Putin falls, they will all fall with him, ”he emphasizes.

How dependent the commanders of the security apparatus are on Putin was evident at the memorable meeting of the Security Council of the Russian Federation on February 21. “Putin, like a high school teacher, asked each of them individually whether the so-called the people’s republics, Donetsk and Luhansk, should be recognized as independent, ”reminds the expert.

“During this one session, Putin made the entire Security Council a partner in his actions in Ukraine. And this excludes the possibility of a coup ”- states ZDF.

The fourth option is Putin’s handover of power peacefully. In democracies, elections are the way to do this, and the next elections in Russia are scheduled for 2024. “Some people hope that they will be the beginning of change. But that’s unlikely, ”says Kluge.

In his opinion, Putin would be able to appoint a successor, some kind of “heir to the throne” who is slowly being prepared to take power. “The problem, however, is that the system of personalized power that Putin has built up over the past few years doesn’t work when the next ruler is on the horizon,” Kluge describes, calling it “the lame duck principle.” “Anyone would turn to this heir to try to build a relationship with him. For this reason, in personalized regimes it is usually unclear who will be the successor “- the expert emphasizes.

“At present, Putin seems to be holding power tightly, and there is no sign of change here. A ceasefire or a peace between Putin and the Ukrainian government is now unthinkable. The prospects are rather dark and it seems to me that the war will accompany us for a long time, even a few years ”- summarizes the expert.

msza / akl /

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