It will still be difficult to get mortgages in 2023. BIK forecasts a decline in sales
Sales of housing loans amounted to PLN 45.4 billion in 2022, which means a decrease by 49.1 percent. compared to the record-breaking 2021, when interest rates were almost zero, according to the Credit Information Bureau. The number of mortgages granted fell by 51.4% to 133.3 thousand.
“The reasons for these declines should be sought in interrelated phenomena: high interest rates and rising inflation and the cost of living. The same factors will determine the situation on the housing loan market in 2023.” – we read in the communiqué.
— A possible revival of demand in 2023 would be possible in the event of an increase in creditworthiness, as well as stabilization of real estate prices. The housing loan market could recover if interest rates were lowered and regulatory requirements were relaxed in the context of banks’ creditworthiness calculations, said Mariusz Cholewa, president of BIK.
Mortgages are the category of loans affected by the largest decrease in terms of new sales in 2022.
For 2023, a further decline is expected – by 38%. compared to the already weak 2022. It is worth noting that interest rate increases were concentrated mainly in the first half of 2022, and the tightened regulations of the Polish Financial Supervision Authority regarding the method of calculating creditworthiness entered into force in April, so even the first months of 2022 under relative to mortgage sales were not that bad. Only the second half of the year brought a collapse. Hence, in 2023, when poor conditions will persist from the beginning, the sale of housing loans is expected to fall further.
In the last few months of 2022, 6-7 thousand were provided. mortgages worth PLN 2-3 billion per month. It may be similar at the beginning of 2023. The President of BIK estimates that with such a volatile economic environment, the downward trend in housing loans may stop in the first half of the year, and in the second half of the year there is a chance for a slight increase in the level of lending. In this text we write about factorswhich pour a bit of optimism into the hearts of potential housing borrowers. One of the key is loosening the requirements suggested by the KNF (decrease in the buffer used to calculate creditworthiness in mortgages with a periodically fixed rate).
In 2023, BIK estimates the value of new lending in the mortgage loan segment at PLN 28 billion (this would be the lowest level since 2005), i.e. by 38 percent. lower than in 2022 and by almost 70 percent. lower than in the record year 2021.
In December 2022, only 6.3 thousand were granted. mortgages worth PLN 2.05 billion (i.e. slightly less than in November), which means a decrease by nearly 70 percent. Every year.
In the case of housing loans, the quality of the portfolio does not raise concerns so far, although it is gradually deteriorating. “However, the portfolio of PLN and foreign currency housing loans should be analyzed separately due to other risk factors. In the case of PLN housing loans, statutory credit holidays had a large impact on maintaining the quality. However, three high-risk groups may affect its loss ratio. repay loans on their own, have loans granted for a period of more than 30 years and have incurred liabilities in excess of PLN 500,000.
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