- Investments in the economy increased in nominal terms by 26 percent. compared to the first quarter
- Retail sales are probably responsible for the decline in GDP in the second quarter
- Investments increased strongly in industry and transport, and fell in trade
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Investments in fixed assets amounted to in the Polish economy in the second quarter of this year. as much as PLN 43.4 billion – according to GUS data. It’s about 26 percent. more than in the first quarter and by 19 percent. more year on year.
Even taking into account inflation, we can talk about a significant acceleration. Fixed price outlays, ie adjusted for inflation, grew 4.7% in the first half of the year. year on year, while in the first quarter only by 1.3 percent. rdr – the Central Statistical Office (GUS) reported. And comparing on an annual basis, we are referring to last year’s strong rebound after the lockdown collapse of 2020.
This sheds light on the causes decline in GDP in the second quarter of this year. by 2.3 percent compared to the first quarter. Investments are certainly not the cause, as they are growing, which gives a good signal from the economy.
The reason for the decline is also not a minus in foreign trade. In the second quarter, our trade deficit amounted to PLN 23.1 billion, while in the first quarter it was PLN 30 billion. The negative balance still weighs down our economy, but less than in the first quarter.
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There are many indications that the economic downturn is caused by people’s fear of spending and rising prices, which affected consumption reduction. Due to the increase in prices, we bought in June this year. by as much as 12.6 percent less fuel year on year – these are data in constant prices, ie adjusted for inflation. Behind drop in sales there is a reduction in inventories by enterprises, which also affects the GDP indicator.
We bought cars by 10.5 percent. less, less by as much as 7 percent. we purchased furniture and electronics and household appliances. We bought more in food stores (by 7.9% more y / y in constant prices), in drugstores (by 10.9% y / y) and clothing stores (by 13.2% y / y) – according to GUS data .
Trade reduces investment, industry does the opposite
The decrease in retail sales may result in the reduction of investments observed in the retail sector. Since the purchases of Poles are not growing, it may be unnecessary to build new stores, at least not at the pace of recent years. Investments in the retail trade declined in nominal terms in the second quarter (food not adjusted for inflation) by 4.5%. compared to the first quarter to PLN 2.5 billion, although year on year they were higher by 36%.
The outlays in the refining and coke industry also decreased by 2 percent quarter-on-quarter. to PLN 1.8 billion, although they increased by 68% annually. The quarterly decline may already be the effect of lower fuel sales. Overall, however, investment by other industrial companies rose sharply. Outlays in the entire industry were increased by as much as 28 percent. Kdk and 33 percent. y / y to PLN 16.6 billion.
The increase in investments in the electrical equipment industry is noteworthy (incl. e-car batteries) by as much as 136 percent kdk and about 139 percent. yoy to PLN 2.1 billion. Outlays were also raised by the leader of the Polish industry, i.e. the food industry – by 39 percent. kdk and 9 percent. y / y to PLN 2.2 billion. The chemical sector is in third place in the nominal growth of investments – by 45 percent. kdk and 18 percent. yyyyy
The power industry increased outlays by 30 percent. kdk to PLN 3.9 billion, although it fell by 13 percent year-on-year. In the context of the pollution of the Odra River, the information about the increase in expenditure in the water and sewage industry by as much as 72 percent may be interesting. kdk and 19 percent. yoy to PLN 1.6 billion in the second quarter of this year. Out of this, the expenditure on water abstraction, supply and treatment grew the fastest.
High increases in investment are still observed in the transport sector. Spending increased by 38 percent. Kdk and 13 percent. y / y to PLN 6.3 billion. PLN 3.3 billion was spent on land and pipeline transport (including Baltic Pipe), and PLN 3 billion on warehouses.
Author: Jacek Frączyk, journalist at Business Insider Polska