Ifo Institute Index. Bad news from the German economy. “He is facing a difficult winter”
“The mood in the German economy remains gloomy,” begins its monthly report by the Munich-based ifo Institute. The most important German measure of the economic climate, the Ifo business sentiment index, fell slightly from 84.4 points in September to 84.3 points in October. 100 points here is the 2015 level. Worse figures were previously in the first two months of the COVID-19 pandemic and in the global financial crisis from November 2008 to June 2009.
The companies were less satisfied with their current operations than a month ago and they look anxiously to the near future. “The German economy is facing a difficult winter,” notes ifo president Clemens Fuest.
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At the same time, they point to a slight improvement in prospects. The assessments of the current situation deteriorated (from 94.5 to 94.1 points), but the prospects were improved (from 75.3 to 75.6 points), which resulted in a slight decline in the index.
Fewer and fewer new orders in industry
It also reports how sentiment is distributed across sectors. They are the worst to trade where on a scale from -100 to +100 points. the business climate index was -31.9 points. – In trade, the index increased (from -32.3 to -31.9 points – ed.). This was due to slightly better assessments of the current situation. However, expectations for the future remain very bleak, especially in the retail trade – comments the president.
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Much better, though still very bad, moods prevail in construction, where the index was minus 24 points in October, i.e. by as much as 2.1 points. lower than in September. – The business condition indicator fell to its lowest level since January 2016. The outlook continued to be cloudy. Backlogs in orders have dropped, reports Clemens Fuest.
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In industry it is a bit better, as the business climate index was minus 15.9 points. and the decrease compared to September amounted to 1.6 points. The ifo CEO points out that this was due to more pessimistic expectations for the future, while the assessment of the current situation improved.
– Order books are still full, but Fewer and fewer new orders are added. Capacity utilization fell from 85.3% to 84.6%. However, it is still above the long-term average of 83.6%. – he comments.
The best situation is in services. Moreover, the index improved from minus 8.9 to minus 8.6 points. thanks to improved expectations regarding business prospects. However, these are still relegation zones.
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