- The tanker fleet owned by Greek citizens has handled as much as 55 percent since the outbreak of the war. oil transportation from Russian ports. Before that, their share was about one-third
- Only in August, exports by sea brought Russia revenues of around $ 10.5 billion, i.e. more than a year earlier through all transport routes, including pipelines – analysts calculated
- This helps Russia to record high liquidity and an inflow of funds despite the sanctions
- In recent days, the differential between Russian and European oil has dropped significantly, which may mean that Russia’s problems with oil sales are diminishing
- You can find more such information on the Onet homepage
The economies of not only those directly involved in the conflict, but also the economy of the whole world, are losing out on Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. We see the costs in our energy and gas bills, in fuel prices at stations, in food prices. However, there are many who make money from this war. These include Greek tanker shipowners.
Based on the data of the analytical company Haver Analytics, which is – as she herself writes on its websites – “the main supplier of data series for the global community of researchers and strategists”, the Institute of International Finance (IIF) created a base that made it possible to analyze which tankers, with the nationality of their owner, entered Russian ports from March to August br. and how much oil they carried. An analysis of this data showed how Russia maintained its liquidity during the war despite the fact that it was sanctions imposed by the West.
Greek tankers helped save liquidity
Russia alone would not be able to handle the transport of its oil, which, instead of pipelines to Europe, now goes largely by ship to Asian countries. For this, you need a large fleet of tankers. And this was primarily provided by Greek shipowners. It is not about the Greek flag of the ship, but the country of origin of its beneficial owner.
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IIF analysts checked who is the owner despite the use of “cover” companies. It has not always been successful, but has mostly been. The analysis showed that although most transport companies resigned from servicing Russia after the imposition of sanctions, Greek tankers broke out of the blockade and decided to take the opportunity.
Estimates show that from March to August 2022, ships owned by Greek owners already provided 55 percent total oil transport capacity compared to 35%. in previous years. “This capacity increase has helped Russia to secure large current account surpluses and high domestic liquidity, as our own analyst Elina Ribakova predicted months ago,” the report reads.
The share of Greek tankers in oil shipments from Russian ports.
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IIF
The chart presented in the analysis shows how the sea transport of oil from Russia grew, partially replacing supplies with pipelines.
Tanker traffic in Russian ports by owner
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IIF
In May and June, Russian oil loads were the largest, reaching 180 million barrels per month. Russian tankers handled only about 20 million barrels, but Greek up to 110 million. Tankers from Finland have already withdrawn from transit, while vessels from Norway have significantly reduced it.
Second, after Greece, the oil tanker fleet from Russia offered by companies from China. Their share in the volume of transported oil has increased since the outbreak of the war.
A record year for Russian oil
2022 is a record year for tanker transport in Russia, says IIF. And all this in the context of the failure of many Western shipping companies to serve Russia after the imposition of sanctions.
The compositional shift to Greek-owned ships more than offset any effects of self-sanctioning. A solid picture of the volume means that Russia was able to record very large current account surpluses, as predicted by our analyst Elina Ribakova a few months ago. This supported the ruble and – thanks to high liquidity – ensured low interest rates in Russia, which helped to mitigate the negative impact on GDP
– IIF analysts assessed.
As they calculated, in August this year. Oil transport from Russian ports broke the record-breaking August 2019, although the data is not yet full month.
$ 10 billion monthly
According to calculations based on oil prices in individual periods, exports via seaports in August alone brought Russia revenues of $ 10.5 billion, i.e. … more than the total exports of Russian oil in August last year.
According to data from the Bank of Russia, from January to July the federation’s current account surplus amounted to $ 166.6 billion. compared to $ 50.2 billion. a year earlier in the same period. Russia’s surplus throughout last year was $ 120 billion. However, one has to take into account the drastic decline in imports, and not only exports.
As a result, although Russia’s international reserves are shrinking during the war, not so quickly as if they had not had extensive means of transporting their raw material. According to the data of the Bank of Russia, on August 19 this year. the reserve was $ 574bn, down by $ 6.6bn week-on-week, but up by $ 8.7bn during the month. About $ 300 billion reserves are theoretically frozen in western banksso Putin still has enormous resources to wage war, amounting to $ 274 billion.
This reserve has shrunk by $ 69.2 billion since the war began. Only thanks to the export of hydrocarbons, including oil exports by tankers.
After the recent gains in world markets Urals oil price sold by Russian oil giants rose to $ 73.54. a barrel. The spread to Brent oil narrowed to $ 24.6. from as recently as $ 33, which means that Russia may offer a smaller discount, which means that its ability to sell the raw material has increased. And this is partly thanks to the help of Greek tankers.
Prices of European Brent and Russian Urals
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Neste / Reuters / neste.com
IIF is an institute based in Washington, established in 1983 by 38 banks from the most industrialized countries in the world, to later expand the group of shareholders to 450 companies. Its main task is to provide analysis and research to its members on emerging markets and global finance issues.
Author: Jacek Frączyk, journalist at Business Insider Polska