Germany does not bode well for its economy in the near future. Naturally, it will also be a problem for the Polish economy. “The prospects for the winter are getting gloomier,” say experts from the German Bundesbank. According to their counts, there are clearer signs that Germany is going into recession. In their opinion, the planned increases in the minimum wage mean enormous costs for entrepreneurs, which will have disastrous consequences for the economy. The minimum wage in Germany will increase to EUR 12, but the Polish government has already announced similar measures in our country.
Germany will enter a recession this year, according to Bundesbank experts. The German central bank has estimated that GDP will start falling on the Elbe in the third quarter of 2022. This means that our western neighbor is on the brink of breaking the upward trend previously disrupted by the coronavirus pandemic.
According to the Bundesbank, “High inflation and uncertainty regarding energy supplies and its costs affect not only gas-intensive and energy-intensive industries and their export and investment activity, but also private consumption and the service sector that depends on it,” commented the German report from PKO BP experts. who quoted the portal “Money.pl”.
Increasing the minimum wage will aggravate the recession? German economists advise against raising the minimum wage
However, Germany believes that the shortages of raw materials from Russia can be compensated by supplies from other directions. Only in this way can energy rationing be avoided during the coming heating season.
“Despite the worsening economic outlook, the Bundesbank believes that the situation in the labor market will remain relatively stable. The recession in 2023 is already the baseline scenario for the German economy in the results of the Bloomberg survey among market analysts “- indicate PKO BP economists, quoted by” Money.pl “.
Poland is also facing economic troubles. Our country is to record a decline in GDP at the turn of the year. Then a short-term recession will be felt. Unfortunately, the global, European or regional economic situation is not all we have to fear. Problems will flow to Poland not only from across the Bug and Oder rivers. The Polish government may aggravate the upcoming troubles by raising the minimum wage, which German experts warned their rulers about.
“According to the report, the increase in the general statutory minimum wage and the depreciation of the euro will bring additional cost pressure in the coming months,” argue Bundesbank experts.
The minimum wage is to increase in Germany to EUR 12 per hour from October 1, 2022. An increase in the national lowest is also planned in Poland. The minimum wage in our country is to amount to PLN 3,600 gross in 2023.