The future of this conflict will be determined by the society of Western Europe in the coming months, said Bulgarian political scientist Ivan Krastev during the panel on the war in Ukraine during the Campus Poland of the Future. He will also judge that “Russia does not care so much about conquering two or three more cities in Ukraine, but about breaking the unity of the West”.
On Saturday in Olsztyn, on the second day of the Poland of the Future Campus, several panels were held war in Ukraine and its consequences.
Ivan Krastev, an analyst and political scientist of Bulgarian origin, valued in Europe and in the world, during a discussion with Sławomir Sierakowski entitled “Like a war in Ukraine is changing Europe? “he was asked about the fate of the Russian invasion. He estimated that by March, April next year”Russia it will have an additional general called winter. “And because of this general, Russia will be in a better position until then,” he added.
Before Western societies the question is “will they sacrifice their comfort or their values”
He also indicated that “the future of this conflict will be decided in the coming months by the societies of Western Europe”.
– Governments in Europe are not prepared for the energy crisis. It should be taken into account that there will be a shortage of energy, that the production of many plants may be limited and because of this, thousands of people will lose their jobs. Do Western European societies understand this? It is easy to say that we support Ukrainians, but if it hits us personally, the perspective changes – said Krastev.
The analyst said that Western societies have different attitudes to conflict in Ukraine. – For Italians, who are far from Ukraine, the conflict in Libya is much more important – he argued.
In Krastev’s opinion, “Russia is not so much interested in conquering two or three more cities in Ukraine, as in breaking the unity of the West.” He added that Moscow treats gas as a weapon, and although it sends it to Europe less than it did before the attack on Ukraine, it earns much more on it, because the price of the gas has risen six times on average.
– Western societies must answer for themselves what kind of sacrifice they are ready to make. Will they sacrifice their comfort or their values, ‘continued Krastev.
Krastev was asked by Campus participants, incl. whether Russians should be banned from traveling in Europe. He judged that “one should distinguish between leaders and societies, distinguish (Vladimir) Putin from (Alexei) Navalny. “In his opinion, the West should accept people who oppose the war, for example Russians who want to flee to the West so as not to join the Russian army.” Every embassy should consider this when issuing visas, “he said.
Main photo source: PAP / Tomasz Waszczuk