Economy, recession, energy crisis, consequences of the war in Ukraine. “We have entered a period of great uncertainty”

There is a possibility that the world will again divide into camps, a little in a different configuration than during the Cold War, but this will mean a retreat from globalization – said in the program “Fakty po Faktach” on TVN24 the chief economist of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, prof. Beata Javorcik. According to PWC’s chief economic advisor, prof. Witold Orłowski “we have been living in a crisis for several years”.

– It seems to me that we have entered a period of great uncertainty. We have a war on the threshold of the European Union, there is a real risk that in winter we will have an energy crisis in Europe and climate changesthat we will start to feel sooner than we think. In addition, geopolitical tectonic plates started to move, set in motion, we do not know where they will stop and when – said Prof. Beata Javorcik.

“There is also the possibility that the world will split into camps again, in a slightly different configuration than during the Cold War, but that will mark a retreat from globalization, the international cooperation that has brought us many economic benefits over the past decades,” she said.

“We have been living in a crisis for several years”

According to prof. Witold Orłowski “we have been living in a crisis for several years”. – It is possible that when you look at this beginning from the perspective of the first 20-30 years of the 21st century, perhaps economists will argue that it was one crisis – he said.

– If we read about the war, it seemed that when it begins, it is the end of the world, the world stops, we are aware of the catastrophe. Now rockets are falling 300 kilometers from us, but our lives have not changed in any fundamental way. There is anxiety, a sense of uncertainty in the military and security sphere. In the financial sphere, however, we have felt it at least since 2007, when the myth of this great financial stability was broken – he said.

According to prof. Witold Orłowski “we are going towards the recession”. – It is obvious to me that we will have a recession in Poland at the end of the year. We will probably have the so-called technical, statistical recession (in a moment – ed.), But this is not true, it is a statistical illusion. A real recession is likely to await us at the turn of the year, he predicted.

According to prof. Beata Javorcik, the consequence of the current situation may be “a return to the state playing a greater role in the economy”. “Once the populists take power, there’s a lot to be spoiled for,” she said.

Lignite mine in the Czech RepublicPAP / EPA / MARTIN DIVISEK

Inflation. “It’s a global phenomenon”

TVN24 guests also talked about inflation. – It would be very difficult for any central bank to prevent the inflation we see. It is not only a Polish or European phenomenon, it is a global phenomenon. Especially in Europe, this inflation is associated with highs energy prices Javorcik was saying. She noted that “gas prices are ten times higher than in the last decade”.

On the other hand, Javorcik said on TVN24, the prices of other raw materials, such as nickel, are falling on the global markets, wheat prices are going down and markets are expecting these prices to fall further. “There is a real chance that this inflation will drop by itself,” she said.

Main photo source: PAP / EPA / MARTIN DIVISEK

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