The Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) reported that Belarus is preparing to accommodate 20,000. Russian conscripts in existing homes, warehouses and abandoned farm buildings. There were also reports of engineering work at the Luniniec airport in Belarus, near the border with Ukraine, and the sending of Russian Su-30 aircraft to the airport in Baranavichy.
This information may indicate that Russia wants to use Belarusian infrastructure to hold and potentially train newly mobilized Russian troops there, but it remains extremely unlikely that this is indicative of the imminent direct participation of Belarus in the war on the side of Russia, assesses the Institute of Foreign Affairs.
The Ukrainian general staff said there are no signs that Russia is forming a strike group to attack the northern part of Ukraine. This, in turn, suggests that despite reports of a stockpiling of troops and equipment Russian troops are unlikely to use Belarus as a place to conduct ground attacks against Ukraine – says the think tank.
The HEI had previously assessed that Belarus’ joining the war would entail too high internal costs for the country’s leader, Alexander Lukashenka. According to the think tank, Russia is not, however, able to create a land strike force in Belarus from existing units in a short time.
In the latest report, the Institute of Contemporary Art emphasizes that The Kremlin continues to violate the principles of “partial mobilization” it has announced. According to a study by the independent Levada Center, half of those polled in Russia express concern over the mobilization, but support for the actions of the Russian military has fallen only slightly since August, to 44 percent.
Meanwhile Ukrainian forces at the front they probably almost completed the encirclement of the Russian grouping near Lyman in the Donbas and cutting off the land lines of communication of Russian troops in the Drobyszewe-Lyman area. In the Kherson region in southern Ukraine, Ukrainian forces continued to strike at Russian logistic hubs and military facilities.
Ukrainian military officials remained silent about the maneuvers of Ukrainian forces in the Kherson region, but reported that the Russians were sending newly mobilized soldiers to the front there. Russian troops most likely also increased the use of Iranian Shahed-136 combat drones in southern Ukraine, the ISW reports.