Balcer: If Russia decided to use nuclear weapons, it would cross another red line

“If Russia decided to use tactical nuclear weapons, it would cross another red line, the rubicon. Then you can imagine that the West will react by giving even more equipment to Ukrainians and will introduce total sanctions on Russia” – he said in the afternoon conversation in RMF FM Adam Balcer, program director of the College of Eastern Europe Jan Nowak Jeziorański. The guest of Tomasz Terlikowski emphasized, however, that it cannot be ruled out that Russia will use conventional nuclear weapons.

“Recently, Biden said very clearly in an interview: ‘don’t do this, don’t do this, don’t do this.’ Three times. We can assume that he did not say it by accident. If we compared the statements of various key Western and military politicians, it would turn out, that the frequency of deterring Russia, saying that it will suffer the consequences if it uses tactical nuclear weapons against the Ukrainians, proves that something is wrong. The probability is of course limited, but we cannot exclude it, “he added.

Did Putin also threaten the West with tactical nuclear weapons in his speech this morning?

“I think this is rather to show that ‘we are defending ourselves, because we are threatened by the West’. As Shoigu said – ‘this is not only a conflict with Ukraine, it is a conflict with the West’. Russia is defending itself against the aggression of the West and that, of course, “in defense, all options are on the table” – said Balcer.

The guest of Tomasz Terlikowski also referred to the fact that partial mobilization in Russia will involve 300,000 people. people.

“The Ukrainians are armed – only, of course, many of them are not on the front line, but are trained, many of them also fought, have combat experience – about a million people. That 300,000 does not make such an impression. It is not like that, that they will snap and those reservists will go into action immediately. a short training session will send them to the front. It will be a big problem, because it is a vicious circle. The more people serve, the more information gets to the public that people are dying. It cannot be denied that Putin claims that this is a special military operation. carries out a special military operation, recruiting 300,000 people to the army? ” – asked the guest of the Afternoon conversation in RMF FM.

Balcer also discussed the speech of the US President Joe Biden at the UN General Assembly.

“Almost $ 3 billion of aid is not a small amount of money. Let us remind you that the main donor of aid and military aid, and when it comes to humanitarian aid, economic aid for Ukraine, is the United States. By this point, it is almost USD 45 billion. is like the economy of some small country. For comparison, Great Britain, which is in second place, is 6.5 billion dollars. this one country “- he noted.

“The worse Russia fares on the front, the more difficult the economic situation and the more dissatisfied the elite is, the probability that there may be some change, a palace coup, is more likely” – said Adam Balcer in the Internet part of the Afternoon conversation in RMF FM.

Balcer argued that then the West should do everything to impose greater conditions on the new government. “Let us remember that then we have to do everything. We cannot sit down to talk to, for example, Medvedev, recognizing that there is no one better, but we should try to set conditions,” said Balcer.

Balcer was also asked about what could happen if tactical nuclear weapons were actually used: “I imagine a situation where before Russia uses nuclear weapons, when the Ukrainians continue the counteroffensive and the Russians fail, they will call phone calls to Washington and a clear message will follow: “if this continues, we have no choice” – explained the analyst.

How will the United States behave then? “I assume that then they could answer: if you do this, remember! We can start conversations with the Ukrainians, but you have to start sending signals that you are ready for these talks. And do not deceive, lie and say that you are ready to talk. Yes like at a meeting in Samarkand with the Shanghai Group, where he said to everyone (Vladimir Putin – editor’s note): “I’m a dove, I want to end this war.” And he is doing partial mobilization, plus he is threatening with nuclear weapons “- explained Balcer.

Sanctions could also be an additional threat, this time total. “Remember that it will kick in, that not only us, but it will fly like a snowball, that companies from countries you would not expect will stop doing business with you” – said Balcer. “Plus more military aid. Because even if the Americans say – okay, we can start some talks, at the same time we have to show him that he has to start taking the idea of ​​talks seriously. There may be a carrot, but there must also be a stick” – he added.

According to Balcer, this stick may be total sanctions and even greater aid to Ukraine. “I think that the Americans certainly still have a lot of very good conventional weapons, which – if they were delivered to the Ukrainians, they would have great chances” – added the expert.

Balcer was also asked about the words of Mykhailo Podolak, advisor to the president of Ukraine, who wrote on Twitter: “Hungary is a Trojan horse that wants the collapse of the EU at the expense of European taxpayers.”

According to Adam Balcer, “this is rhetoric that is unfounded”. “For sure Orban tries to play several pianos. You have to remember that he can box in a higher category than he is capable of,” added Balcer.

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