Russia is in a dead end. The main question is whether they will defend the territories we have occupied or will they try to move forward. Knowing them, they can try to occupy the entire Donetsk region, Zaporizhia, Kherson region. However, do they still have any prospects? I do not see them. Their army is being destroyed. And the army they are currently mobilizing is incapable of fighting. But there will be trials. And they will cost them a lot.
What is the purpose? Raise the bar to force Ukraine to sit down at the negotiating table?
I can see three things. First, they create conditions for negotiating positions. It is also the blackmail of the West. Second, it is a struggle for the physical survival of Putin and his regime. After all, Russia does not forgive its Tsars for missing warriors. So, for the sake of survival, it will try to crowd us with its numbers. They are counting on collecting 300-500 thousand and throwing them to the front. Third, there is a hypothesis that they want to isolate Russia according to the North Korean option. This explains the announcement of mobilization, but leaving the borders open at the same time. They give a chance to escape for a resource that can resist, ask unpleasant questions. But the quiet majority will be taken to the army. In this way, they hope to preserve their regime. But they will fail.
What about the territories where the referendum was held?
Now, logically, they must defend them as well. And here is an important issue, because Putin’s statement concerns entire regions, but the Russians do not control them completely. So now, of course, they will say that we are occupying some of their territories. We have conquered and hold the territory of the Russian Federation. Monkeys who will accuse us of what they do themselves.
What are your outlook for the next few months of the war?
The Russians will at least try to capture the entire Lugansk and Donetsk regions. Putin may try to take Kyiv again, he will certainly threaten the Chernihiv and Sumy regions. At least so that we do not redeploy our troops to the East. They will try to gather strength and launch a terrible attack. We’ll push him off because this whole new enlistment isn’t soldiers and they don’t have weapons. But what will happen later is unknown. It is also not known what processes will take place in Russia itself.
How do you rate the threat of using nuclear weapons?
There is a possibility. But this turns the war into a situation where anything is possible: NATO’s entry into the war, an attack on the Russian Federation, the murder of Putin himself. This is the limit they can reach. But for now, I see it more as an information weapon.
Date Created: Today, 16:21