As he points out, in the ongoing war we deal with several very different, different phases, each of them has its own characteristics and its own implications for war it can develop in the long term. Yeah the newest phase it is defined by Ukraine’s apparent ability to strike deep behind Russian lines.
Psychological influence on the Russians
Regardless of how they are carried out, (these attacks) cause chaos and destruction in what Russia considered safe. This has a direct, material impact on Russia’s military operations, e.g. by destroying airplanes, but the psychological impact on Russian soldiers and civilians must also be significant. says Giles.
These are direct evidence that the Russians have to contrast with the propaganda served to them by the state media. If they are told that this is not a war, but a special military operation, and that it is also proceeding according to Russian plans, then since there are explosions nearby, it is a confrontation with reality for them, and this is an undeniable encroachment of the truth into Russian the world must change the Russian view – underlines. He adds that visa ban for Russiansif it came into force, it would have a similar effect.
Thwart Russian plans
Giles stresses that it is difficult to authoritatively predict how the military operations will continue and whether Ukraine is actually able to recapture all the occupied territories, as she tells her President Volodymyr Zelensky. However, the expert points out that although the announced and expected Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson did not materialize, it still affected Russian forces, because Russia had to move additional troops there from places where it wanted to launch the offensive itself. The mere thwarting of Russian plans is already a significant success for Ukraine.
Of course, it is important for Ukraine to regain these territories, because there are people who suffer under the brutal Russian occupation, but also because President Zelensky needs to demonstrate to his allies in the West that this war can be won. It needs success to strengthen this fragile coalition and show that the end (of the war) can be in sight. Time and are also enemies of Ukraine winterthat will affect the patience of Western societies. For now, they support Ukraine, but as the costs of this support, both nationally and personally, become felt, it will become more and more fragile. – the expert predicts.
The effect of Ukraine fatigue
Giles believes that the West has not yet suffered from Ukraine’s fatigue and does not yet have a full understanding of the cost of the war. As he says, now the reluctance of some countries, e.g. France and Germanto fully support Ukraine, but that is a constant factor in their policy, while the frontline and Anglo-Saxon countries have always understood the importance of supporting Ukraine.
But the harder it hits crisis (related to) the cost of living, the more Vladimir Putin’s energy blackmail exploits Germany’s energy dependence, the more we can see that European societies may begin to falter and support for Ukraine may weaken. Therefore, Ukraine needs something to show that this war does not necessarily go on forever and, if (the country) receives additional support, it will end sooner rather than later. – emphasizes Keir Giles.
From London, Bartłomiej Niedziński